Dec. 11, 2023 — West End Home Builders’ Association
A new study by Malone Given Parsons Ltd. (MGP), commissioned for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) and supported by the West End Home Builders’ Association (WE HBA), identifies that there is insufficient land within municipal official plans in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) and Greater Toronto Area to meet mid- and long-term population growth. This will jeopardize the provincial objective of building 1.5 million new homes and undermine efforts to address housing supply and affordability.
“The need for additional land supply has been clearly identified by planning experts as necessary to accommodate population growth and limit the continued displacement of residents,” said Mike Collins-Williams, WE HBA CEO. “Local political opposition and disruptions in our planning system make it increasingly difficult to bring new ground-oriented housing online. There are also challenges in adding supply within cities, meaning we are nearly 80,000 housing units short (2006–2021) of where we should be in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). Without an aggressive approach to building, we can anticipate this shortfall to increase.”
The report identifies that even before the province reversed the approval of municipal official plans, the housing shortfall would increase to an estimated 97,000 grade-related housing units (including singles, semis and all forms of townhouses). Following the reduction of land supply by the 2023 provincial “reversal” of local official plans, the housing shortfall could increase to 206,800 grade-related homes (10,400 ha) plus any shortfall in apartment growth.
MGP’s study further identifies that in absence of expanding municipal boundaries to add land for grade-related homes, the redevelopment of vast quantities of existing neighbourhoods would be required to accommodate growth. Based on the municipally adopted official plans, to be “reset” by the province that include little to no additional land for new settlement area boundary expansion areas, the shortfall in grade-related housing units would require 10% of all existing low-density neighbourhoods to be redeveloped to accommodate growth to the year 2051.
“Given that the GTHA accommodates over 30% of Canada’s immigration each year, because immigration is the primary driver of population growth in Canada, a shortfall of housing has national implications,” said Neil Rodgers, OHBA Interim Chief Executive Officer. “The province has a policy statement to guide development for future growth. It commissioned extensive growth and housing requirement projections to help plan to 2051. This study demonstrates that by ignoring its own policies and projections, decisions made today are going to have far-reaching implications and show that we will be in a demand/supply imbalance for decades to come — continuously pushing prices up. If we’re to address the affordability crisis now, we need solutions that increase supply, support transit-supported infrastructure and housing choices on shorter timelines.”
WE HBA along with our partners at BILD and the OHBA are calling on the Ontario government and municipal governments across the province to ensure that housing affordability and supply are addressed by making sufficient lands available for a market-based supply of housing to meet forecasted growth needs to the planning horizon of 2051. In addition, they are calling on the government to establish a transparent, modern and stable planning system, which is required to realize the forecasted growth in the GGH.
